Protectionist Sentiment Dominates US-China Investment Congressional Hearing

Last Thursday several members of Congress, representatives from the Securities and Exchange Commission, Department of Treasury, and several NGOs testified before the US-China Economic Security and Review Commission, a bipartisan congressional advisory panel. The full day hearing intended to examine the national security implications of investments made by sovereign wealth funds in the US. Unfortunately, it missed achieving this objective by a long shot. The testimony by several of the panelists was very one-sided. Fear mongering, conspiracy theories, and downright xenophobia were the major themes that won the day.

The panelists’ prepared statements can be accessed here: (US-China Economic Security and Review Commission)

Some of the highlights:

Linda Thomsen, director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement suggested that SWFs pose an insider trading risk (Securities and Exchange Commission):

…sovereign wealth funds, like hedge funds, have, by virtue of their substantial assets, substantial power in our financial markets. However, in addition to this financial power, sovereign wealth funds, unlike hedge funds, have power derived from being governmental entities, which may give them access to government officials and information that is not available to other investors. There is the potential for these powerful market participants to obtain material non-public information, either by virtue of their financial and governmental powers or by use of those powers, to engage in illegal insider trading using that information.

I understand the issues that the SEC is concerned with. It’s their job to be vigilant about insider trading risks. But it’s important to point out that any investor can legally have as much access as they want to government officials by simply hiring a lobbyist. The lobbying system in the US puts the onus on each individual party (government official, lobbyist, client) to not do anything illegal. If we want to be objective, then SWFs and their governments should be held to the same standards as everyone else. Also, it’s not fair to say that SWFs, who to my knowledge have not been involved in any investment scandals, are guilty until proven innocent while hedge funds, mutual funds, investment banks, ratings agencies, and lobbyists are given the benefit of the doubt even after being mired in scandal after scandal. To suggest otherwise seems needlessly conspiratorial.

Senator Jim Webb argued that that passive, minority stakes taken in US corporations by SWFs posed national security risks (U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: Webb testimony):

All proposed foreign investments that have national security implications are potentially subject to review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States. I have been particularly concerned regarding passive investments that may nonetheless provide foreign governments and state-owned corporations with control over sensitive national security information.

 

Holding a small minority of shares or not taking a board seat does not provide a guarantee that there will be no influence or control. For example, Saudi Prince Walid Bin Talal, who holds a 3.9 percent stake in Citibank, was closely consulted in the ouster of Chuck Prince from Citibank as its CEO. Prince Bin Talal does not sit on the board. You do not need a seat on the board, however, to have a seat at the table.

 

Prince Bin Talal has invested his money, not his government’s, and he is held up as a responsible and conscientious investor. The Prince’s role in another Prince’s ouster, however, speaks volumes to those who suggest that you need to be on the board to exert influence.

I don’t think the comparison Webb is making here is particularly relevant. Prince al-Walid is a private investor, so Webb is not comparing apples to apples. Further al-Walid has had a long relationship with Citigroup and most of the senior managers there. Comparing al-Walid to a SWF doesn’t make any sense, but if Webb wanted to be less transparent he could have examined the relationship between al-Walid and the rest of his portfolio holdings, which include substantial minority stakes in dozens of US companies. If all Webb was trying to do was say al-Walid is a foreigner, foreigners run SWFs, so all foreigners will exert influence, then mission accomplished. Of all people, Jim Webb should know better than to use this card.

The Treasury Department has thus far been the voice of reason in the debate over SWFs and played that role again at the hearing (Forbes):

Robert Dohner, deputy assistant Treasury secretary for Asia, told the panel. “There is a risk that the rise of sovereign wealth funds could provoke a new wave of investment protectionism, which would be very harmful to the global economy,” Dohner said. “Protectionist sentiment could be partially based on a lack of information and understanding of sovereign wealth funds, in part due to a general lack of transparency and clear communication on the part of the funds themselves.”

Forbes goes on to make some of the most important points that were inconspicuously absent from the debate at the hearing last Thursday:

(Sovereign wealth funds) see themselves as passive, long-term investors, driven solely by the need to make a good return on their country’s surplus cash.

 

That mostly is their track record, but their Achilles’ heel is their perceived lack of transparency and a persistent concern that they will be motivated by more than just market considerations, which provides ammunition for the conspiracy theorists among their critics and feeds the forces of protectionism stirring in this U.S. presidential election year.

 

At Davos, Bader al-Saad, managing director of the Kuwait Investment Agency, the oldest sovereign wealth fund, which has had a stake in Daimler since 1969 and BP since 1986, politely but pointedly noted, America’s own hedge funds and bond-rating agencies are perhaps equally deserving of such a code.

 

But logic has little to do with this debate.

Major Sovereign Wealth Funds Deals through January 2008

According to Thompson Financial via Gulf News:

 

News Roundup (6 February 2008): Temasek/Tui deal; No SWF for India?; Japan looking to thwart China; Saudis to be modest

Slow news week and I’m swamped at work so not much news analysis this week. I’m working on a few substantive pieces that I hope to get up as soon as things calm down, possibly this weekend.

Temasek merger with Tui

Germany doesn’t seem to have the same issues that the US does with allowing foreign entities to own transportation infrastructure (Financial Times):

Temasek, the sovereign wealth fund, and Germany’s Tui are in talks to merge their shipping operations in a deal that could see the Singaporean group take a stake of more than 20% in the Hanover-based travel group.

India not in a good position to start SWF

Echoing some of my own thoughts on the possibility of an Indian SWF (LiveMint):

Unlike established SWF rivals, India’s reserves are not a result of high commodity prices or excess savings. The country runs a current account deficit of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP). It needs to keep a fair amount of cash on hand just to ensure that trade keeps flowing.

More important, India is still very poor and crying out for investments. Investment accounts for 33% of GDP in India, far below China’s 43%.

The government recognizes the problem. Its latest Five-year Plan includes $492 billion of infrastructure spending, but it expects the private sector to come up with two-thirds of the cash. It would make sense to use any extra unneeded foreign currency to increase the government’s share.

In the long term, the returns on even modestly well thought out domestic investments will surpass those earned by a sovereign wealth fund.

Saudi reconsidering plans for SWF

Much larger country than the other commodity-based SWFs, much more political unrest, couple that with the Western backlash to SWFs, the risks of having a SWF seem to outweigh the rewards for Saudi. Especially, when they can at any point ‘appropriate’ a larger portion of any excess reserves to members of the royal family (Business Week):

Don’t expect Saudi Arabia to be a big player in the Sovereign Wealth Fund space. That was the message from a senior Saudi financial official I encountered recently. He said Saudi Arabia was considering a modest fund of around $6 billion.

Japan wants global SWF ‘rule book’ for protection from China

China Development Bank is attempting to ‘dominate and control’ the Japanese steel industry. Any global rules or regulations on SWFs are likely to be voluntary so I don’t think Japan would get much protection from those. It will be interesting to see how this plays out (Times Online):

“We need governments everywhere to come together to make rules that would prevent the disorder caused by these funds,” Hajime Bada, president of the Japan Iron and Steel Federation said. “Some countries are using their state funds to dominate certain industries.”

Japanese steelmakers see the impending bidding war for Rio as a crisis in the making, with potentially devastating iron ore pricing power going to BHP Billiton or, worse, to an aggressive Chinese player with the financial backing of the State. Caught between what it sees as “two worst-case scenarios”, the Japanese steel industry is pinning its hopes on government intervention.

Weekend Links (2 February 2008)

Some recent articles of interest:

• Bond crisis: Sovereign funds hold their bets (Fortune)
• US Treasury’s Kimmitt stresses benefit of commercially-based SWFs (CNBC)
• OPEC rebuffs call for increase in output (Financial Times)
• IMF’s proposed sovereign wealth fund code ruffles feathers (Bretton Wood’s Project)
• China Investment-Fund Head Says Focus Is on ‘Portfolios’ (Wall Street Journal)
• State-led globalization (RGE Monitor)
• Libya Sovereign Wealth Fund to Shun U.S. (Bloomberg)
• Market convulsions will lead to the return of the state as a major economic force (The Independent)
• Japan’s Nukaga: No plan for sovereign wealth fund (Reuters)
• Ask the Author: A World Without Islam (Foreign Policy)
• The ‘war on terror’ licenses a new stupidity in geopolitics (Guardian Unlimited)
• A Risk Index for Sovereign Wealth Funds (Breaking Views)
• After Iraq: A report from the new Middle East—and a glimpse of its possible future (The Atlantic)
• If $28 Trillion Comes Knocking, Open the Door (Bloomberg)
• Can Emerging Markets Avert U.S. Chill? (Wall Street Journal)
• (Stephen) Roach Says He’s `Optimistic’ on Asian Growth (Bloomberg)

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News Roundup (30 January 2008): Citigroup chief says Chinese, Russian sovereign funds are top worry; Qatar buys stake in Credit Suisse; Indian SWF?

Concerns over China, Russia SWFs

At a recent finance conference in Brussels, Citigroup chairman Win Bischoff had a very interesting exchange with a German EU parliamentarian (Martketwatch):

“It is the China and Russia syndrome of sovereign wealth funds that is most concerning,” Bischoff told a finance conference in Brussels.

 

China and Russia are the main concern in the debate over whether to regulate state-backed investments, German member of the European parliament Wolf Klinz said. He said German companies are worried that China will steal its intellectual property and fear that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to use investments “as a political instrument.”

 

“Yes, that’s a very good point,” Bischoff said, nodding at Klinz’s remarks.

Bischoff’s comments are particularly interesting because his firm has recently had several SWF investments approved by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). I would imagine that he is familiar with what the US government’s main concerns have been with SWF investments.

Qatar likely to buy 5% stake in Credit Suisse worth $3 billion

The deal hasn’t been finalized and the stake could be slightly higher or lower. The interesting part of this deal is that Credit Suisse is not publicly recognized as having large subprime related losses, like all the other banks that recently received SWF capital infusions (Marketwatch):

Other than a $1.9 billion writedown related to the sub-prime crisis announced in November, the bank has so far emerged comparatively unscathed from the credit crunch. Sovereign wealth funds from Abu Dhabi, China, Dubai, Singapore and Kuwait have snapped up large stakes in banks such as Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS as they wilted under the weight of huge losses related to the implosion of the U.S. sub-prime mortgage industry.

See more on what the Qatar Invesmtent Authority has planned for the future in this interview chief executive Hamid Al-Thani gave to CNBC at the World Economic Forum last week (Dealbook).

India looking into creating a SWF

Indian government officials have SWF envy (The Economic Times):

While Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF) owned by big Asian economies invest in assets the world over, Indian policymakers too are looking at whether the country needs to float such a fund. The finance ministry is planning to set up a committee to examine the pros and cons of an Indian sovereign wealth fund.

I’m not sure how much fiscal sense a SWF makes for India. The country is far less developed (infrastructure, education, basic health care, etc) than China and other export-oriented countries with SWFs, doesn’t have an abundance of natural resources, and is a democracy which means the government would likely be held accountable for the fund’s performance. How would the Indian government react to the public backlash from an investment gone bad a la the China Investment Corp/Blackstone deal?

More than a third of India’s population lives in poverty, while in China the percentage of the population living below the poverty line has fallen into the single digits; in absolute terms this is a difference of several hundred million people. How would the Indian government react to hundreds of millions taking to the streets and protesting a government that, from their point of view, is neglecting their dire condition to bailout a foreign investment bank? I just can’t see how there wouldn’t be an immediate change of policy if this type of situation arose in any democratic country, let alone poverty stricken India.

GCC dollar peg, inflation update

Qatar is considering following in Kuwait’s footsteps and dropping the dollar peg (Financial Times):

Qatar is reviewing its currency policy and could revalue or drop the dollar peg as the booming Gulf state struggles to tame inflation while the US reduces interest rates to head off a recession. Qatari officials on Wednesday said the gas-rich emir­ate was considering revaluing its currency or linking it to a trade-weighted basket of currencies as well as other policy proposals aimed at cooling rampant inflation of up to 15 per cent.

Inflation reeking havok on GCC businesses (Arabian Business):

More than half of Gulf businesses have been badly hit by rising inflation, with costs increasing faster than they can be passed on to customers, an ArabianBusiness.com survey has revealed. With inflation rising across the GCC, and predicted to hit a 20-year high of 12% in the UAE this year, 62.5% of respondents to the poll said the price of goods was rising too fast to be passed on.

News Roundup (23 January 2008): US SWF backlash; Gulf response to US rate cut; China being patient; Abu Dhabi clean energy initiatives

US backlash to recent investments by sovereign wealth funds

Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are viewed more negatively by the American public on the heels of investments each firm accepted from SWFs (Financial Times):

Citigroup and Merrill Lynch’s standing among US citizens has plummeted as a result of multi-billion dollar capital injections by sovereign wealth funds, according to new research that highlights simmering public opposition to investments by foreign governments.

 

Over half of the 1,000 people polled by the market research group Strategy One said they “trusted Citigroup less” after its recent decision to tap Middle Eastern and Asian sovereign funds to ease its financial constraints.

 

In Merrill’s case, 45 per cent of the respondents said their trust in the bank had fallen since hearing of investments from foreign state funds, according to the research to be published on Tuesday.

The poll draws attention to the rising protectionist sentiment among the American public, which is in part being stoked by politicians like Hillary Clinton:

The new research – carried out early this month between the two waves of foreign investments in Citigroup and Merrill – also points to an underlying current of protectionism within the US public, which could be exacerbated by the rising threat of a recession.

 

“The Citigroup figure is staggering,” said Laurence Evans, president of Strategy One, which is owned by the public relations group Edelman.

 

“There is a xenophobic element to it. The biggest concern is uncertainty: people don’t know how much influence sovereign wealth funds will have.”

Gulf response to US rate cut

Gulf central banks, whose currencies are pegged to the US dollar, have decided to follow the US Federal Reserve’s 75 basis point interest rate cut with reductions of their own (Arabian Business News):

“The Gulf will have to match the Fed cut,” said Marios Maratheftis, regional head of research at Standard Chartered Bank. “This is going to create even more liquidity in the market which means more inflationary pressures.” Inflation in four of the six Gulf Arab oil producers has overtaken official lending rates, encouraging borrowing for investment in assets such as real estate, which is the main driver of the surging cost of living across the region.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) central banks say that they remain committed to the dollar peg for now, but will leave the door open for coordinated currency revaluations in the future, to tackle rising inflation.

China in no hurry to buy credit crunch bargains

China is taking a more cautious approach to making investments on the belief that the worst of the subprime crisis is still yet to come (Reuters):

Beijing’s reluctance to buy into Citigroup coincides with growing expressions of concern by Chinese officials about the seriousness of the credit crisis. “The subprime loan issue has planted a ticking timebomb in the global financial markets. It now seems the impact is much more serious than the market had previously expected. I don’t think it will be over any time soon,” Vice-Finance Minister Li Yong said at a recent forum.

Abu Dhabi announces $15 billion clean energy fund, world’s first carbon neutral city

Abu Dhabi decides to invest in the energy technologies of the future (BBC):

The government of Abu Dhabi has announced a $15bn initiative to develop clean energy technologies. The Gulf state describes the five-year initiative as “the most ambitious sustainability project ever launched by a government:”. Components will include the world’s largest hydrogen power plant. The government has also announced plans for a “sustainable city”, housing about 50,000 people, that will produce no greenhouse gases and contain no cars.

Weekend Links (20 January 2008)

Some recent stories of interest:

• Davos-Sovereign wealth funds this year’s most in-demand guests: (Reuters)
• Economic uncertainty to dominate Davos: (Financial Times)
• One year on and the mood among bankers at Davos has taken a serious turn: (Times Online)
• China Investment Corp – transparency, accountability constitutional impossibilities: (Guardian Unlimited)
• China turns risk averse as capital outflows rise: (Financial Times)
• The new (financial) world order: (RGE Monitor)
• Silence not golden for sovereign funds: (Financial Times)
• A Guide to Speed Dating With Sovereign Funds: (NY Times Deal Book)
• Who’s afraid of Middle East money?: (Business Week)
• Regulators should intervene in bankers’ pay: (Financial Times)
• The Growing Power of Petro-Islam: (Newsweek)
• Subprime Nation: (Real Clear Politics)
• Abu Dhabi fund to break silence: (Arabian Business)
• ‘Green city in the desert’ for Abu Dhabi (Arabian Business)
• Gulf oil boom spreads to poorer lands: (Financial Times)
• President Bush Questions Saudi Ability to Raise Oil Supply: (Naked Capitalism)
• The Construction Site Called Saudi Arabia: (NY Times)
• Gulf Cooperation Council-Iran Watch: (Abu Aardvark)
• US Secretary of Defense: Iran a challenge, not a threat: (Inter Press Service)
• MEMO to US Presidential Candidates RE Middle East Policy: (Time)
• Red, White, and Blue Tag Sale: (NY Times)
  

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Economist cover story: ‘Invasion of the Sovereign Wealth Funds’

The Economist’s cover story this week is a feature on Sovereign Wealth Funds.

The story gives a good overview of many of the basics such as size of SWFs, how they came about, how they’ve evolved, where they’re headed, and the issues facing SWF investing. It also includes a relatively balanced discussion on the motives of SWFs, which isn’t surprising as The Economist is probably the most fair and balanced mainstream publication around.

One point that The Economist makes, that has been completely absent from the mainstream debate thus far, is that the fear of politicizing foreign investments cuts both ways. The SWFs must be cognizant of possible retaliatory actions, such as asset freezes and/or asset confiscations, that can be taken against their investments for things such as political disagreements or court rulings that hold SWFs responsible for the actions of their host country’s citizens. The Economist cites the example of Britain forcing the Kuwait Investment Authority to divest from part of its’ stake in BP in the 1980s because Margaret Thatcher, in the midst of privatizing national assets, ‘was in no mood to see so much of a national treasure owned by a foreign government’.

Politicians scrutinizing the recent flurry of SWF investments should take care to remember that these infusions are in effect rescue capital that their government’s would likely be on the hook for had SWFs been deterred from investing, and that their own future geopolitical motives should be held to the same standard they want to hold SWFs to.

The article concludes, correctly in my opinion, by saying the chief threat that SWFs pose is that of financial protectionism and that it’s in the best interests of all parties to get along:

The hope is that both host countries and sovereign-wealth funds see that their interest lies in building confidence. The hosts stand to benefit from the funds’ capital. Meanwhile the funds are ruled by the politics of the places where they invest. You are only sovereign at home; abroad, someone else wields the power.

Most Notable Sovereign Wealth Fund Deals of 2007

2007 was the year sovereign wealth funds put themselves on the map. In order to understand the evolution of SWFs, it’s obligatory to take a critical look at some of the landmark events of that important year. Expect to see more 2007 reviews, commentaries, and analytical pieces in the comings weeks. To kick things off, a review of the most newsworthy SWF deals of 2007:

• Dec. 24, 2007: Merrill Lynch says it will sell a stake in itself of at least $4.4 billion, and up to $5 billion, to Singapore’s state-run Temasek Holdings. Temasek will hold less than 10 percent of Merrill and have no voting control. Merrill also agreed to sell a $1.2 billion stake to domestic investors

• Dec. 10, 2007: UBS AG announces that the Government of Singapore Investment Corp., a sovereign-wealth fund, is investing $9.75 billion for a 9 percent stake in the Swiss banking giant, while an undisclosed strategic investor in the Middle East is contributing $1.77 billion in UBS AG.

• Nov. 26, 2007: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, the sovereign investment fund of the Gulf Arab state, acquires a 4.9 percent stake in Citigroup Inc., the largest U.S. bank, for $7.5 billion.

• Nov. 7, 2007: Central Huijin Investment Co., China’s largest state-owned investment arm, acquires 71 percent of China’s joint-stock China Everbright Bank for $2.7 billion.

• Oct. 29, 2007: Dubai International Capital, owned by Dubai-ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, acquires 9.9 percent outstanding equity stake in Och-Ziff Capital Management Group, a U.S.-based hedge fund, for more than $1.1 billion. Och-Ziff goes public in November on the New York Stock Exchange.

• Oct. 22, 2007: China’s government-controlled Citic Securities Co. and U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. agree to invest $1 billion in each other for minority stakes that could be expanded. They will also operate a 50-50 joint venture in Hong Kong to offer capital markets services across Asia.

• Sept. 20, 2007: The Qatar Investment Authority, Qatar’s sovereign investment fund, acquires a 20 percent stake in the London Stock Exchange and nearly 10 percent of Nordic bourse operator OMX AB.

• Sept. 20, 2007: Abu Dhabi-based Mubadala Development Co., an investment arm of the Abu Dhabi government, buys a 7.5 percent stake of the management operations of one of the world’s largest private-equity firms, Carlyle Group, for $1.35 billion

• July 23, 2007: China Development Bank, a Chinese state agency, agrees to pay $3 billion for a 3.1 percent stake in British bank Barclays PLC, and Temasek Holdings, a sovereign wealth fund in Singapore, agrees to pay $2 billion for a 1.77 percent stake in Barclays.

• July 13, 2007: Dubai International Capital purchases a 2.87 percent stake in one of India’s largest banks, ICICI Bank Ltd., for $750 million.

• May 20, 2007: China’s state investment company agrees to pay $3 billion for a 10 percent stake in U.S. private equity firm Blackstone Group LP. The Chinese investment company agreed to buy nonvoting shares in Blackstone concurrent with Blackstone’s initial public offering.

• May 2, 2007: Dubai International Capital buys a undisclosed stake in British bank HSBC Holdings PLC.

News Roundup (16 January 2008): Citigroup, Merrill Lynch go back to the well; Subprime damage report; GCC currency revaluation

Citi, Merrill Raise $21 billion from SWFs

Citigroup announced that it will be accepting investments totaling $14.5 billion from the Government of Singapore Investment Corporation, the Kuwait Investment Authority, one of it’s largest current shareholders Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, former CEO Sandy Weill, and the New Jersey Investment Division. Merrill Lynch will raise a total of $6.6 billion from the Korean Investment Corporation, the Kuwait Investment Authority, and Mizuho Corporate Bank of Japan (Financial Times).

For Citigroup, the announcement of the capital infusion coincided with the release of a disastrous 4^th quarter earnings report and the revelation that things could get worse:

Citigroup also unnerved investors by warning of losses to come from consumer loans as it revealed a 40 per cent dividend cut, a $9.83bn fourth-quarter loss, $18bn in subprime-related credit writedowns and remaining exposure of $37bn to subprime mortgages.

Tomorrow, Merrill Lynch is expected to report a substantial loss and a possible subprime related writedown of $15 billion (Reuters):

Citigroup expects a $15 billion fourth-quarter write-down at Merrill Lynch and said CDO/subprime exposures will decline by 50 percent to 70 percent in aggregate.

Subprime Damage Report

The capital infusions that Citi and Merrill just received bring the total amount invested in banks and securities firms by outsiders (primarily SWFs) since the subprime crisis began last summer to $59.4 billion:

*In billions (USD)    Source: Bloomberg

Gulf to revalue currencies by April?

The countries of the GCC could revalue their currencies, which are currently pegged to the dollar, by April (Arabian Business News):

Gulf Arab oil producers could revalue their currencies together if the US dollar weakens further, with appreciations of 8% in the UAE dirham and Saudi riyal likely before April, Standard Chartered said on Wednesday.

 

Dollar pegs force the region to shadow US interest rates at a time when the Federal Reserve is cutting rates to contain a credt crisis and inflation is running at decade highs across the Gulf.