2008 Predictions

Everybody else is doing them, so I might as well join the party:

• Sovereign Wealth Funds continue their buying spree investing over $200 billion in western companies. SWFs will buy more stakes in technology and materials firms hoping that the stronger links with these companies can aid them in building their countries’ nascent infrastructure.

• Hillary/Richardson ticket wins US presidency handily over Romney/McCain on the strength of 70%+ of the Hispanic vote and a record percentage of the female vote.

• The US economy avoids recession. US Elections, Olympics, strong growth in Asia, the Middle East, and other Emerging Markets buoy the US economy as spending on tech, materials, and services keep big US multinationals expanding allowing it to avert recession.

• Emerging Markets have another stellar year. The rise of the 3rd and developing world continues. India, China, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index all post double digit returns again.

• Worst of the credit crunch is over for the major financial institutions but not for the real estate sector. New home sales and housing starts remain in a relatively deep recession.

• Iraq will be relatively quite and off the radar even after the surge-related troop pullout. The surge was just the calm before the storm. The Sunnis, Shias, Kurds, and all of their various factions and offshoots are patiently arming and waiting for a larger scale US troop draw down to fight the next round, the round that will likely determine who ultimately controls Iraq.

• No Iran War. Despite the neocons last ditch efforts to loudly beat the drums of war once again shortly after the presidential primaries conclude, the US will not start another war in the Middle East.

• Musharraf weathers the storm and is still president of Pakistan.

• The Annapolis Israeli-Palestinian peace process collapses due in large part to Bush’s failure to mediate and exert the necessary amount of effort needed to reach a fair and just settlement for both sides. This was largely expected by the main players and regional violence does not break out as a result of the process collapsing.

• Someone figures out how to monetize page views on video sharing and social networking sites. Google buys this person out. Google shares continue their march towards $1000 and surpass it by the end of the year.

• Private equity heats up again in the 2^nd half of 2008 on debt issuance getting more attractive as a result of fed easing.

• End of 2008 Major Indexes, Interests Rates, Currencies, and Commodities: S&P500 1600, 10yr 3.50%, Fed Funds 3.00%, Gold $1050, Oil $125, Dollar/Euro $1.55, MSCI EAFA 2500

I’ll check back a year from now to see how I did.